While Carnival Is Our Therapy, We Wining, We Jammin - Come Ash Wednesday 2026, the Sobering Truth.

Grace Notes · Reflection + Reality Check

While Carnival Is Our Therapy,
We Wining, We Jamming.
Come Ash Wednesday 2026, the Sobering Truth.

Trinidad Left Out. Energy Maps Redrawn. Washington and Caracas Reroute Venezuelan Oil.
“De place could bun down, we jammin still.”

That line has always carried more than music. It’s a philosophy. Fire in the background, rhythm in the foreground, and a quiet understanding that we survive by moving — even when the ground beneath us feels uncertain.

This Carnival season, I’m watching from a distance. Born of Trinidad and Tobago. In my blood forever. Missing the pulse, the crowd sway, the steelpan that rearranges your heartbeat. So in the middle of soca and bacchanal, when posts start flying across my screen about oil routes, power shifts, and Trinidad being “left out,” I pause.

Maybe I’m being maccoshus(sp)— minding people business from afar. Maccoing from afar. But here’s how it looks from a bird’s-eye view.

With Maduro removed, it seemed — at least on the surface — that favor might naturally flow toward those who aligned closely with Washington. I watched that belief settle around Machado, the presumed chosen: reverence, positioning, expectation — polished, predictable, a little too sure of itself. From the outside, it carried the quiet confidence that alignment would be enough.

And from afar, Trinidad and Tobago’s leadership appeared to be moving in that same direction — public camaraderie, visible cooperation, the sense of standing in good stead.

Then — bram, jus so.

The routing decisions landed. And suddenly the realization settled in: Trinidad was not “betrayed.” It was made unnecessary in this phase. Not because of spite. Not because of failure. But because once control over oil movement, licensing, buyers, insurance, and payments is centralized elsewhere, geography stops being destiny — especially for a country already contending with declining gas output, constrained LNG volumes, and petrochemical plants operating below capacity or idled altogether.

Energy corridors don’t move on sentiment. They move on permits, storage, risk calculations, and timing. And timing matters when domestic gas shortages are already tightening margins, when cross-border gas projects remain suspended or uncertain, and when the difference between relevance and redundancy is measured not in history, but in available molecules and bankable certainty.

All of this unfolds against the unresolved pause of cross-border gas — the Dragon field hovering like a missed hinge point, neither fully abandoned nor allowed to turn.

At home, I hear the talk: we don’t need Venezuela. Our fortunes lie elsewhere. Maybe. Maybe not. Energy math has never been impressed by bravado. Gas shortages and shuttered plants don’t argue back. They simply show up.

The real work — for Trinbagonians everywhere — is learning how to hold joy and clarity at the same time. And to be careful how the pied pipers of leadership could throw way allegiance and sovereignty for the lure of big powers, and get powder in dey face. Because another Carnival saying still stands: yuh cyar play mas and fraid powder.

Trinidad and Tobago — chart your course forward with strategic intelligence, citizenry, and proven alliances.

Fact-Check Endnote · Questions Trinbagonians Are Asking

What impact do current U.S.–Venezuela energy transactions have on Trinidad and Tobago?
Venezuela has suspended formal energy cooperation with Trinidad and Tobago, while Venezuelan oil exports have resumed under U.S.-controlled licensing, altering regional energy flows.
Source: Reuters
Why is Trinidad not part of the current Venezuelan oil routing?
Venezuelan crude has been staged through select Caribbean terminals chosen for logistics, storage readiness, and risk management under U.S. oversight.
Source: Reuters
Can Trinidad and Tobago have secure energy autonomy and “rich fortune” without Venezuela?
Not easily in the short term. The economy remains deeply tied to natural gas supply for LNG and petrochemicals; alternative projects take time and capital.
Sources: Reuters, Atlantic LNG overview
What has the U.S. established in the region in terms of political/economic stronghold?
Significant leverage over how Venezuelan oil re-enters global markets—through licensing, routing, and revenue clearance—shaping who participates and who waits.
Source: Reuters
Note: These sources support the verified logistics and policy framework. Motive claims (“who promised who what”) are harder to prove publicly, so this post separates what’s documented from what’s inferred. Context note: Trinidad and Tobago’s current exposure is heightened by declining domestic gas supply and the stalled Dragon cross-border gas project with Venezuela, once viewed as a near-term bridge for LNG and petrochemical feedstock under U.S. licensing. Sources: Reuters — https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/venezuela-moves-suspend-energy-agreements-with-trinidad-including-gas-projects-2025-10-27/ https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/us-grants-license-shell-trinidad-develop-venezuelan-gas-field-official-says-2025-10-09/

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